Satellites that support GPS, communications, and other critical functions may face increasing risks in the coming decades due to climate-driven changes in the Earth’s atmosphere, according to a recent study. Researchers found that rising levels of carbon dioxide in the upper atmosphere could amplify the effects of geomagnetic storms triggered by the Sun.
How Geomagnetic Storms Impact Satellites
These storms occur when charged solar particles interact with Earth’s magnetic field, creating phenomena like the Northern and Southern Lights. While visually stunning, strong geomagnetic storms can have serious consequences for satellites, increasing atmospheric density in the thin upper layers and causing spacecraft to slow, lose altitude, or experience shortened operational lifespans.
The new research, published in Geophysical Research Letters, highlights how climate change could intensify these risks. Carbon dioxide emissions are causing the upper atmosphere to become less dense over time. A thinner atmosphere means satellites experience less drag, which can extend their lifespan but also exacerbates the growing issue of space debris in low Earth orbit. However, when a geomagnetic storm occurs, the atmosphere rapidly becomes denser, creating a sudden “throttling” effect that can push satellites closer to Earth, increasing the risk of operational problems or collisions.
Lead author Nicholas Pedatella, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, explained that this is a critical consideration for satellite engineers. “Satellites today are designed based on historical atmospheric conditions. In the future, the same magnitude of a geomagnetic storm could trigger a much larger density response,” Pedatella said.
Preparing Satellites for a Changing Atmosphere
The study modeled the response of the upper atmosphere to geomagnetic storms in future years, using simulations for 2040, 2061, and 2084. By analyzing last May’s strong solar storm, researchers estimated that by the late 21st century, the upper atmosphere could be 20% to 50% less dense at the peak of a comparable storm. This lower baseline density means that storms could produce a more dramatic spike in atmospheric density—potentially tripling it instead of merely doubling it as seen today.
Such rapid changes could severely affect satellite orbits, posing risks to GPS networks, internet connectivity, weather monitoring, and military communications. Pedatella emphasized that these findings underscore the importance of incorporating climate-driven atmospheric changes into satellite design.
The study also illustrates how interconnected climate change and space operations are. While a thinner atmosphere might seem advantageous for prolonging satellite lifespans, the sudden fluctuations during geomagnetic storms create new vulnerabilities. Engineers and space agencies will need to consider these evolving conditions to maintain the reliability of critical satellite systems.
As the world becomes increasingly dependent on satellite infrastructure for everyday functions, understanding and preparing for these compounded risks will be essential. The study suggests that future satellite designs should account for a changing upper atmosphere influenced both by climate pollution and space weather, ensuring safety and continuity for global communications and navigation networks.
